This is my first blog in the financial year 2024-25, and I wanted to write about my expectations for the next 12 months.
As with every election
year, this year starts with uncertainty. However, I am sure the country will
reach a consensus for the general good. Hence, we should expect renewed
positivity in business.
In its latest South
Asia Development Update, the World Bank has projected robust growth of 6.0 percent
for the region, driven predominantly by India’s strong economic performance.
India has been regarded as the region’s economic powerhouse. This growth is
largely attributed to the resilience of the services and industrial sectors.
Even Morgan Stanley is bullish about the Indian economy, raising its GDP growth
forecast to 6.8 percent for 2024-25 from 6.5 percent estimated earlier.
Market experts say
FY24 was an outstanding year for the Indian stock markets. The BSE Sensex saw
an incredible rise of about 24 percent, outperforming prior years’ performance
and generating substantial wealth for investors. This growth outpaced many
global counterparts, showcasing the market's resilience and strength. The
predictions point to an optimistic trend into the fiscal year 2025, with
volatility mostly triggered by events happening worldwide.
In my opinion, the
digital payments ecosystem in India is well set for growth and will drive
smartphone penetration, internet connectivity, and digital transactions.
Fintech innovations, including digital wallets, UPI payments, and contactless
transactions, are expected to gain momentum, leading to greater financial
inclusion and convenience for consumers. We can also expect the business growth
of cyber security firms, which guard the fintech innovations.
ESG considerations
will gain prominence in India's financial landscape. Investors increasingly
prioritize sustainable and responsible practices, accelerating the adoption of
green bonds, renewable energy projects, and socially responsible funds. As
awareness of climate change and social issues grows, ESG investing will likely
become mainstream during the financial year.
However, will all be
as positive as we expect? I am curious to see how inflationary pressures drive policymakers'
monetary decisions. Rising commodity prices, supply chain disruptions, and
geopolitical tensions may continue contributing to inflationary concerns,
necessitating a cautious approach toward monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of
India has a task ahead of itself to maintain a delicate balance between
supporting economic growth and managing inflationary risks in the financial
year 2024-2025, which I am sure will be handled as efficiently as we have
witnessed in the past.
Summing up, the financial year 2024-2025 in India may witness various challenges and opportunities across various sectors. Proactive policies, innovative solutions, and resilient business models will drive inclusive and sustainable growth as the country navigates through economic recovery, digital transformation, and sustainability imperatives.
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