A CMIE survey claims that a little over 12 crore people in India have lost their jobs during the pandemic till date (July 2020) across the economy. Going by the Economic Survey, we had a workforce of a little over 47 crore in FY 2018. Factoring in the four crore that the NITI Aayog had claimed as net addition at the self-employment level in FY 2019, we may safely assume a workforce of about 50 crore at the time COVID-19 hit us and prompted the government to declare a lockdown.

So the COVID-19 lockdown may have claimed nearly 24 per cent of the workforce as its economic casualty, not counting those who were incapacitated or killed by the novel coronavirus. The figure may vary, but the proportion may not be very wrong.

Yes, the situation looks dire on the economic front. But that is because we are looking at it only from the single perspective of job loss or sectoral figures during the last four months. With the prolonged lockdown that began in end-March having been lifted and markets adjusting to a ‘new normal’, the registrar of companies has some good news to share. The RoC says it has registered 16,000 new companies during the pandemic till June.

There are other interesting figures that can be cross-read with such green shoots. Most of the jobs created in the last three years were by the MSMEs or micro, small and medium enterprises. And of all the jobs created, more than 70 per cent were in the micro-units.

There is an interesting parallel that can be found with the Bengali proverb that says, “storms claim big trees as victims, while the grass stays untouched.” The resilience and operational flexibility of an MSME allow it to react quickly and adapt well.

In a previous blog, I had said how microfinance could be the economy’s saviour in the current situation. Microfinance can enable the MSME segment to regenerate opportunities for the jobs that we have lost. While all of us thought that lack of PPE or personal protective equipment was a major hurdle in our fight against COVID-19, the MSMEs turned the situation around. India, which was a net importer of PPE, became a net exporter.

As for new jobs, while the RoC has not yet given the breakup of the new companies it has registered, one suspects that most of them will be in the MSME category.

Microfinance could once again be a saviour in creating jobs.